Semi Active Phase Setting Up GALE Developing OBX

Start you off  with a forecaster note. Most of you who visit our website are surfers looking for surf. Please keep in mind we have other members of the marine community who like to follow our forecast. As the weeks progress towards the start of hurricane season, viewership to our site, increases from NON mariners and surfers who will be checking specifically for any NEW storm info. So when reading our forecast updates, if it doesn't affect you or your locale, you already know theres no surf coming, disregard the post or share the forecast with someone you know it may affect. Happens every year when small for all sets in and everyone is chomping at the bit. "There ain't no waves coming why is he even posting."

With that said and picking up on the tail end of yesterdays post. As mentioned models continue in the overnight with on again, off again which leaves us untrusting with what they are showing us. Yesterday's afternoon run of the GFS showed us this for next Sunday. Those who follow us on our social feeds saw this yesterday and it was like BAM there it is. 2016-05-01_123518
This morning not so much as models shift location around a bit and give it more of a WNW wind component. The way the models are acting, is typical when there are too many players on the board. Looking at the image below you can see theres some enrgy moving around. What you see is fluid with SW to NE Flow.2016-05-02_073523Speaking of fluid periods of heavy rain developing through SE states as the front moves through next several days. For you fisherman (Tommy Rady) wide spread rains setting up from Florida Straights and offshore waters of the Mid-Atlantic. Image for Thursday 8:00 AM2016-05-02_074203
Looking at the image above this is the other change in the most recent model runs. Along with the post yesterday we included "Possibly Tropical in Nature" That has gone away in the overnight. Look at the little pin hole circle SE of Great Lakes Region in the above image. This is going to work it's way down towards the Mid-Atlantic. Yesterdays run of the GFS wanted to suck up Southern energy and put it ESE of OBX. Overnight the model creeped it North and eliminated NE energy. Can't stress enough emphasis on "one run of many." Would rather use the phrase, "back to back model runs showing" but it aint happening just yet. For now here's the latest NOAA Guidance. GALE developing off the OBX next 48. This is all WSW flow as far as Swell generation.2016-05-02_080204Seas increasing next 48 10-12 Feet behind SW wind flow 25-30KTS offshore waters Mid-Atlantic with higher gust. The ENE wind swell you see in the image below where from the last batch of GALES that moved off the Mid-Atlantic several days ago now out in the North Atlantic. This mornings surf check showed a little wave trying to break out back of the house this morning.2016-05-02_080546This gives hope as we head towards this weekends forecast. At the moment it turned negative for East Coasters and a slight positive for Island Surfers. Image for Sunday. IF, repeat, IF, this run would hold true nice shot at some WNW Swell for the Islands once again. Obviously for East Coasters with all the weight in the Southern Half of the Semi Circle no need to tell you what that means for East Coast Surf.2016-05-02_081401
Weight and Sea !!!!!
Stay Tuned for the next update.

Current windfield of GALE that moved off the OBX several days ago.2016-05-02_081152

Share this: