Welcome to May 1st 2016

We are now at T-Minus 30 Days and counting for the Official Start of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season a special time of year for surfers. Just because the calendar says June 1st is the Official start date of the season doesn't mean storms can't develop outside of season. Case in point 2015 with Tropical Storm AH-NA on May 8th 2015. Produced a fun swell and kicked off the 2015 season.2016-05-01_064815
In 2012 the Season kicked off with a brother and sister duo, twin storms ALBERTO and BERYL. Although the storms did not occur simultaneously, the location of these two speaks volumes.  Heres ALBERTO just off the Carolina Coast 2nd half of May.2016-05-01_080454
And BERYL East of Daytona Beach towards the end of the month.2016-05-01_080555
Fast forward to today. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for any tropical development at this time. We are however continuing to monitor couple of areas. One out North of PR, and the other coming up in the Bay of Campeche. Models currently show no development. Looking at the Big Picture looks lie a little active phase is trying to setup.2016-05-01_064521
Heres the latest look Low Pressure trough out towards the Islands. Again models show no development but always keep in mind just because they don't show it doesn't mean iy cant happen. It's why we watch and you follow. This is exactly how Home Grown Development can, and has in the past gotten started. 2016-05-01_082730As far as the current environmental conditions are concerned shear remains high and unfavorable for development except for a small area North of PR.2016-05-01_060253
In general the entire region under a high shear environment however this could change over the next week or so.2016-05-01_083636
The other area we are keeping an eye on is over in the Bay of Campeche. Again models show no development. Little short trough is trying to develop.2016-05-01_073831The other reason we are monitoring is Rule of Thumb during tropical season, "Always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of Low Pressure to develop. Latest NOAA 96 hour surface forecast showing Low Pressure down in the Bay however dissipating. 2016-05-01_084024
As far as surf  and upcoming forecast there currently are no significant weather systems or patterns to produce any meaningful surf for the majority outside of some trade wind swell mixed in with some NE wind swell behind the departing Lows off the Mid-Atlantic last couple of days. Latest NOAA 24 HR Swell forecast.2016-05-01_085314At +962016-05-01_085722
With all that said and keeping in mind how this post started, locations of early seasonal development pointed out above this is the latest wind field forecast for May 6th. This will likely change as new model runs come out.
I can't tell you something is going to develop. You can't tell me it can't. At least not yet.
Ancient Rainbow Warrior Saying,

Stay tuned not trusting of the models at the moment.

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