Inside of 35 Days Official Start to 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season


Sorry for lack of full updates here on DaBuh.com and our social feeds. Has not been much to talk about as small for all has set in and the forecast is not looking good at the moment. As advertised a few weeks ago "Tropical Signals Would Become Apparent in 7-10 days," here it is. We are fast approaching the time of year where the words "Monitoring for Homegrown Activity" gets used. We are now inside of 35 Days for the Official Start of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. We are also approaching time of year where we go into "Loop Mode" meaning, we don't watch models we watch satellite loops. Models can't do that, so in essence they can't see development in Real-Time. They can only forecast development within their run.

With that said here's the latest look out towards PR and Islands this morning. A Low Pressure Trough has been persisting last several days bringing PR much needed fresh rains after suffering through drought last year. Negative effect standing water increasing the likely hood of mosquito outbreak. Those with travel plans to the islands MUST research effective ways to protect themselves from mosquito bites.
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This is an early AM IR and the convection associated with the trough. Wind Shear values are high.2016-04-30_065746
In order to have Tropical Development (Not Always) Wind Shear and Upper level winds need to be favorable in the 10-20KT range. Wind shear has been decreasing off the SE U.S. Coast and East of the Bahamas last several days. Latest wind shear map showing majority of trough under 40-50KT Shear. But notice the pocket of 20KTS. Models show no development at this time and trough forecast to dissipate. We will continue to monitor until it does.2016-04-30_075745The other favored area for Homegrown Activity is the Western Gulf Bay of Campeche. Latest IR showing weak Low Pressure trying to develop along the Mexican Coast down in the Bay of C. 2016-04-30_071220Wind shear values remain high however light Blue dashed lines indicate decreasing wind shear values in knots.2016-04-30_071428
Current shear Gulf of Mexico 90Kts impossible for any type of tropical development.2016-04-30_080552
Looking at the Big Picture and the answer to why most of you are reading this, "When will we have waves" Got this question 50 times last 24 hours. That time of year unless something develops tropically small for all will continue for most. Right now only seeing signals. There is however an outside shot for small pulse from Gale that moved out from the Mid-Atlantic a day ago. Have not had time to do a buoy watch. Hopefully will have time later today so check back for update on that. The last system to give us waves is the Low that moved off the Mid-Atlantic back on the 24th. It's located far right of image if you have been following along with our forecast.
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00Z EURO showing POTENT Low moving into NE Florida on Day 5 (+120) Thursday. This could lead to heavy rains coming.2016-04-30_081803
Then on Friday wants to rapidly intensify. Not a swell producer as stiff offshore winds would develop North of OBX down into Florida. Spots in NE U.S. however shot at Surf Alert right locations.2016-04-30_082011
.With the on again off again nature of the models last several days this is a sign of model confusion. Also another sign of change of season. Thats it for now. If you don't follow us on our social media feeds you should consider creating an Instagram or Twitter account to follow us for this years Tropical Cyclone Season, even if it is the only account you follow. You can set your push notifications to get an alert each time we post Real-Time info or check daily.

Stay tuned for the next update.

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