Here's the latest update. No need for me to tell you there's waves coming. How good simply depends on your location. Thats up to you to figure out whether your in a good one or not. PR and Islands look to be in for a long duration swell event as recent model runs re-intensify area of Low Pressure East of the MID-ATLC in the extended period as Low vacates the region and moves into the NATLC. This should set up a strong secondary shot of swell aimed back at the Islands around next Wednesday. For everybody else what ever is coming over the next week get what you can. Although the NATLC will totally be covered in NE Swell over the next several days, just like a few weeks ago when all the swell arrows pointed the other way towards the East Atlantic, they are getting ready to do it again and a period of small for all looks to be coming after this impending event.
So first things first. Weak Low pressure trying to develop East of the Central Florida Coast. This is will likely be the catalyst for GALE developing along the SE Coast. Image from around 11AM. This will likely move towards the NNW allowing the pressure gradient to tighten a bit prompting GALE Warnings along the SE Coast.
As detailed a few post ago models have a hard time when there are too many B players on the board.
Just because it appears the GFS is having issues doesn't mean the model might be wrong. It might be right
The main event is well underway East of the MID-ATLC.Official forecast out of NOAA OPC showing Storm developing South of Nova Scotia next 24 hours and quickly retreating South. Notice Low Pressure along the front moving away from Central Florida CoastThen be out there for a few days. Image for Sunday. Notice STNRY = Stationary. Gonna sit for a bitThen GFS by Wednesday has it re-intensifying as it lifts North into the NATLC. Long Fetch Northerly winds aimed at PR and the Islands. This is the secondary pulse we mentioned today on our social media feeds. After this lifts North the underbelly of WSW winds will quickly reverse the prominent NE Swell direction we are about to experience with this next event.
Latest NOAA 48HR Swell forecast showing front runner swell from previous UK Storm finally arriving in the SW ATLC with NEW NE Swell working it's way past the OBX
The St. Martins Buoy had back to back postings of 14 second periods and has yet to repeat. We will continue to monitor for increasing trends. 96HR showing 13-14 second periods with what looks to be enough energy to get down into SOBE. Wait and Sea.
Thats it for now was trying to wait for the EURO to come out. Check this post later this evening for updates after we review it's latest run.
Here's some eye candy and along long long ways out but it's the first time the GFS this season showing something trying to spin up out of the MDR (Main Development Region) Take it with a grain of salt but El Nino is crashing increasing the chance for an active 2016 Hurricane Season now just inside of 50 days until the officail start and 35 days for the official start of the 2016 EPAC Hurricane Season.