7:00 AM EST April 13th
AS ALWAYS WHEN WE MAKE THIS CALL IF IT AIN'T BREAKIN AT YOUR HOUSE BUY A TICKET
Our call on Atlantic Entering Extreme Phase a few weeks ago continues with what appears to be a Cut Off Low developing off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Latest run of the GFS inside of 4 days at plus 84. Weak Low SE of New England and some left over short wave energy along the SE Coast that could produce Gale like conditions.
Image is for Saturday.
The energy for this is, and has been, on the board last several days. Now all there is to do is to sit back and watch. Remember the entire North Atlantic is getting ready to be covered in NE Swell. If you saw our post out a week ago models then were showing an area of Low Pressure developing out near Puerto Rico. A trough developed yesterday and it appears a weak area of Low Pressure is developing now. Models show this retrograding while slowly lifting North and possibly getting absorbed into the Low SE of New England in the above image.
The energy for that Low is here. Going back to the GFS above it's at the tail end of this that could produce Gale Like conditions along the North Florida SE Coast this weekend. One run of many more to come. All this is heading out into the Atlantic.The EURO just out and has a similar solution but not as aggressive as the GFS at this point. Irregardless large surf and hazardous marine conditions can be expected going into this weekend. In the last several weeks we've had 3 events off the Mid-Atlantic with seas in excess of 25 Feet. This one setting up for number 4. Here's the latest 96HR NOAA Swell Forecast. 10 Second NE ground swell developing behind Possible Cut Off Low off the Mid-Atlantic. This is likely swell energy from UK Portugal Blocking Low thats there now and then breaks in tow two. The two far right image that turned the entire North Atlantic into NE Swell. As you can see longer period energy is passing through the Islands.From here is were there is some disagreement between the EURO and GFS. EURO Blows all of this out towards the East and NE with less of a swell generation. This is the 96HR Wind Wave. map in meters. Right now only showing seas increasing 12-15 Feet but expect this will change in the next guidance update.
Again one run of many but at least we can monitor the loops now for development.
Will try and do a video this evening.
UPDATE 7:00 AM EST APRIL 13th
Here's a quick update. As advertised above NOAA OPC bumps from 4 Meters to 7 or MAX Seas 20-25 FEET next 72-96HRS. Also we have been detailing in our updates about a dip back to the SW. Latest guidance out of NOAA OPC now showing the dip. The L on the back side of Bermuda is what was N of PR yesterday and the L North of Bermuda is whats currently coming from the U.S.
Here's a water vapor from late last night. Low over Texas continues to move off towards the East this morning.
Heres the 24HR Swell forecast. The NE swell you see is coming from the UK Portugal Low we have been detailing in our updates. We will be monitoring the Paul West Bermuda and the South Bermuda Buoys later today to see if we can spot the trends to see what kind of size this initial pulse will bring.
Here's the 48HR Swell forecast out of the TAFB showing front runner swell heading for the Islands. So there will already be NE swell in the water when our new swell source develops and drops back SW.
Here's what that looks like in the latest wind forecast.
Thats it for now stay tuned for the next update.