Here's a fresh look at the upcoming forecast. Would like to thank those who have been following along this past week.
We always like to go back over the last 7 days of our forecast calls to see what our previous forecast looks like now vs reality. This morning when I awoke to start my daily forecast progressions I felt as if an epiphany came over me in reflection of last week forecast and posts on social media. Some of you who follow our forecast don't do social media. Wish I didn't. Many of you who do follow also follow me personally on Facebook. Those who saw the post I made about the recent Sperm Whale deaths near and around the North Sea many of these deaths were caused by starvation. The Sea is often called Da Sea of Life. If the Sperm Whales are starving then the oceans are dying. In life you can not initiate reproduction without sperm. No sperm no life. Call it Climate Change, call it Global Warming, call it what ever you want. Immediate action needs to be taken to halt further pollution of our oceans. If we fail to act now, which we are likely already past the tipping point, the earths ocean will end up as the Dead Sea. You know, where the Dead Sea Scrolls were found. So in essence you can say that, "It Has Been written." Lets pray the common saying in ancient times "So it is written…….. so shall it be done" does not manifest into the truth.
Ironically if you Google "Sea of Life" you"ll find beauty aid products that are marketed as products to make you look and feel young again. No knock on the industry, it's products or it's customers but basically you get a facial mud packing from sediments of the Dead Sea to make you look and feel young again as you continue to go through life's dying process. There are many different theories as to how the starvation of the whales came to pass but many of these whales were found to be full of plastic.
It is called the "Law of Unintended Consequences." The switch from paper to plastic. Bag boys at your local grocer asking "Will that be paper or plastic." They don't ask paper anymore and we are left with a world full of plastic. Theres a reason why they put plastic last in the question. If they reversed it and asked "Plastic or Paper" you would have said paper.
In a National Geographic post dated March 31st, which was no April Fools, it was reported that,
" The 13 sperm whales washed up near the German state of Schleswig-Holstein earlier this year, the latest in a series of whale strandings around the North Sea. So far, more than 30 sperm whales have been found beached since the start of the year in the U.K., the Netherlands, France, Denmark, and Germany."
"Sperm Whales Found Full of Car Parts and Plastics"
As a reminder to our post website post on April Fools Day, we don't do April Fool jokes.
Although not apart of the National Geographic post referenced above, I posted this image along with my Fakebook post. Are these two males, two females, a couple ? I don't know. What I do know is 13 is the magic number. There once were 12 disciples and a head master at a table one evenning. If we all can't come to the table on this and break bread on fighting the continued pollution of our oceans, we all gonna starve to death. It's Da Sea of Life.
As we all pray for surf during the upcoming forecast we would also like for you to reflect on this. It's not just about the Sperm Whale its about Da Tuna too. I hear there is another Fukishima spike coming. We are killing the oceans. No Sperm No Tuna No Mo Life in Da Ocean. Ironically the same ones who are radiating the Tuna are also hunting whales. If Sea World can stop so can you. Look at the recent Indian River Okeechobee fish kill and water release that has everything going Okee Chokee and choking the life out of it. As you think about todays forecast update think about the Atlantic Circulation as the UK's shit thats been aiding in the killing of Sperm Wales gets flushed away from the Islands into the Central Atlantic behind a predominant NE Swell.
So here's a look back at the previous forecast and the changes underway.
On April 1st we did a post titled "Eye'M Peeling It" We mentioned "Winds of Change" and the definition of Peeling. Caught some fun peelers at the poles the other day and hoping for more. Know doubt, at least here in my backyard, the "Winds of Change" have been humping here in NE Florida last several days.
On the 4th We Posted "Atlantic Entering Extreme Phase ? "
We have now had 3 systems off the Mid-Atlantic produce seas in excess of 25 Feet. One sent a nice shot of swell to PR and the Islands which is what they got yesterday and the day before. One was the Extreme Southerly Suckup we advertised and then theres the one currently this morning that looks to have maxed at 26 Feet image below. This is all in W-SW swell heading out away from the coast. This is the opposing swell we said not to worry about in one of our video updates.
This is what it looks like in the latest 24-48HR OPC Swell Forecast. Notice how the W-SW Swell it is running into NE Swell coming out of the NE Atlantic. This is robbing initial front runner energy by running over it. Look at the 18-20 second Northerly Swell working it's way into the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
Also take note of the wind wave direction change into East Florida. This helps going into the forecast as High Pressure begins to shift in the Atlantic.
On the 5th we posted "Possible Major Swell Event PR and Islands" In that update we talked about a possible area of Low pressure developing North of PR. That the GFS liked the idea but pointed out in our video update that the EURO didn't but what the Euro did like, was alot of North and NE fetch coming out of the NE Atlantic. Here it comes in the 96HR Swell Forecast. Now you can see the wind swell direction change to ENE into the East U.S. Coast and NE Swell coming out of the NE Atlantic.
This takes us to the post on April 3rd "Forecast Update Hurricane Force Low Developing RARE 950MB
"There are signs in the current pattern and in the extended forecast period we could see the same but the arrows pointing the other way. Picked up on it in the overnight model runs as we begin a pattern of OMEGA Highs developing in the Atlantic. Remember Newtons 3rd Law as it looks like some Big Lows are gonna setup in the extended. Weight and Sea."
Now you see what we saw a week ago.
Now to catch you up to this weeks upcoming forecast period. There are changes. Gone is the Low for North of PR we talked about in our updates. Here's this mornings visible in what we believe the GFS was picking up on last week. We will continue to monitor but models now show nothing coming out of this.
As a reminder this was the image posted in last weeks update that would have completed the Possible Major Swell Event for PR and the Islands.
The other change comes out of the UK. This is yesterdays EOSDIS of the developing storm. Models continue to drop it SW towards the AZORES but now show it weaker. Going back to the 96HR Swell image above this could be one of those swell events where the period is there, but the height isn't. Waiting to see the final development over the next day or so for further analysis. Definately NE Swell size now the question. The next thing we will be monitoring is Low Pressure moving across the Southern Tier of the U.S. next couple of days that could lead to heavy rains in the SE with increasing chance of Severe Wx coming.
Latest model runs show a series a Low Pressure Waves riding along this next front. Unclear at the moment on exact outcome as models try to figure this out. Here's last nights run of the EURO at Plus 5 days. The BIG Low on the right is what turns the entire NATLC into NE Swell and one of the waves of Low pressure just off the OBX. If a stronger and more organized Low develops off the MiD Atlantic and can get away from the coast could me the difference between a call for possible Surf Alert or just some windchop with underlying NE Swell.
As we started advertising in our feeds a couple of days ago some Big Question marks coming in the forecast period. Will have further updates and Real-Time Obs coming on Low dropping out of the UK next couple of days so stay tuned for the forecast updates.
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