FORECAST UPDATE HURRICANE FORCE LOW DEVELOPING RARE 950MB


Storm developing off the NE U.S. Coast this morning RAPIDLY intensifying to Hurricane Force Low next 24 hours or so SW of the Tip of Greenland. This is a MAJOR SWELL EVENT. A Major Swell Event by Atlantic standards is when a storm system creates seas in excess of 25 Feet and produces long period ground swell. We did not advertise this one as the majority of this swell is headed for the otherside of the pond. Although that being the case we are providing an update because of the rarity of the Low.
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Current Max Seas Excess 30 Feet2016-04-03_103135
Latest NOAA OPC Forecast shows a 953MB Hurricane Force Low Developing. Average pressure for NATLC Storms in winter run around 970MB. But because this one will have a pressure fall in excess of 24MB in a 24hr period it will be classified as a Meteological Bomb. Lowest Pressure ever recorded in the NATLC 914MB and 924MB2016-04-03_062024
NOAA 24 hour Max Sea forecast 45 Feet. This is something that doesn't happen in regularity in either basins as far as seas are concerned in either the NPAC or NATLC arenas outside of Tropical Cyclone Season.2016-04-03_061402
And here are the results from the above. The entire EATLC covered in long period groundswell 15-18 seconds. This to is a rarity. It is not often we get to see the Atlantic covered up with swell like this although we did see a very similar system about 30 days ago.2016-04-03_063035
There are signs in the current pattern and in the extended forecast period we could see the same but the arrows pointing the other way. Picked up on it in the overnight model runs as we begin a pattern of OMEGA Highs developing in the Atlantic. Remember Newtons 3rd Law as it looks like some Big Lows are gonna setup in the extended. Weight and Sea.

For now here is the next system we are monitoring for larger surf coming. This is the 2nd Clipper advertised in our updates. Latest model trends now showing a 3rd coming. Clipper passing over Great Lakes Region tommorow on the way towards the Cape late on Monday.2016-04-03_110214
Once it fully emerges into the Atlantic High Pressure forecast to build in behind. Surf will increase quickly Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind moderate NE pressure gradient. Image 00Z GFS for Wednesday.2016-04-03_110646
Latest NOAA Swell forecast shows 9-10 second NNE Swell developing behind the departing clipper.2016-04-03_111132Latest out of the National Hurricane Center showing Double Digit Seas just North of 30 setting up a POSSIBLE Surf Alert if the winds cooperate. 2016-04-03_111452
FORECASTER NOTE: Waiting for another model run. Previous forecast called for GROUND SWELL developing from this Clipper however it now appears it will be just a weak Low with the majority of winds coming from the High.
We are also looking into an EXTREME Southerly Suckup setting up for NE States towards the end of the week.
Also take note North of PR in the image below.
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Stay tuned

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