Here's the latest forecast update. Many of you reading this at the moment are first time vistors to our website. We just got it back up and running after being hacked and infected with a nasty virus, Not where we want it to be yet but at least we are up and running. Special thanks to Jim Byrne for getting us to this point where we can provide you with our latest thoughts on the upcoming forecast. Over the last several days we have seen an uptick in the number of new followers to our social media feeds.Thank you and welcome aboard. Through interaction in the comment sections we are reminded of some old sayings now that seasonal change is upon us especially after what we witnessed yesterday over in the Gulf. One of those old sayings is Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta. For those who don't do social media and missed one of our many post this is what it looked like in yesterdays sattelite imagery. If you recall in our Easter Update this past Sunday the heart shape drawn over Florida if this doesn't get your blood pumping nothing will.
We captioned this image yesterday with
CURRENT IR EASTERN GOMEX
FINALLY STARTING TO LOOK LIKE HURRICANE SEASON
Alot of people think this is yelling which leads to hype. It's not it's so everyone can clearly see it and it's old school NOAA. But because of how we have all been dumbed down on the internet or maybe because you thumbed down on your phone to quickly NO WHERE DID WE SAY IT WAS A HURRICANE. To our long time followers we apologize to our new followers we ain't for everybody. No I in Hype. We do our best to provide you with the latest forecast update based on Real-Time info. Couple of the other old sayings we are reminded of yesterday and a good lead in to todays forecast update is this. Nothing in Weather is Absolute Until it Happens in Real-Time and Forecast Subject to Large Errors Forecaster Has Been Known to be Wrong Before.
With that said
Latest NOAA TAFB 72 hour surface map now showing area of Low pressure down in the BOC (Bay of Campeche) Moving up into the Central Gulf and into the front. All though not officially in season yet rule of thumb during tropical season always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of Low Pressure to develop.
Overnight model runs have switched up a bit on the eventual outcome of this energy once it crosses Florida. A couple of weeks ago when we first saw this next phase coming many of you will recall the phrase repetative pattern and some times in weather like history it repeats itself. This setup is almost identical as a few days ago. Image below March 28th
And here's this mornnings backside look.
Still lots of time to watch bad news after the GFS pounded us day after day with a Low crossing Florida it dropped it in the overnight. The good news after not showing it last couple of runs the EURO is back on however pushes development back a couple of days. Image at +192 for Thursday of next week. One run of many more to come.
Certaintly looking at the pattern and the sattelite imagery all the ingredients are there. One of the things we looked at yesterday HT Waldy Smith is SST (Sea Surface Temp) around the West Gulf and East Canaveral Bouys. They are definately warm enough now to support tropical development and likely contributed to the return of the blob in the Eastern Gomex yesterday. West Gulf Buoy water temp 80 degrees and the East Canav at 78. The other contributing factor was wind shear dropped a bit over the same area during that time allowing the clouds to bulid to higher heights.
Once the fluff was gone you could clearly see the tropical signature of a tropical like system with the outline of a comma.
Will we see the start of a repeat performance starting in about 72 Hours ?
Ancient Rainbow Warrior Saying.
NEBA TINK SUM TING KNOT POSSIBLE WHEAT OUT FIRS LUKE-ING AT DA POSSE-BILLY-T
Stay Tuned for the Updates
Will be working on a near term forecast update next and should have it up later today.
High Pressure moving out into the Atlantic with increasing ESE tradewind swell.Large Area of seas 8-9 feet developing.
Most all indicator buoys already posting ESE swell 9-10 seconds around 4-5 feet so the ocean is already heading this way. Check back in a couple of hours for that update.