Happy Easter Everyone. Sorry for the lack of updates. Hasn't really been anything to get excited about til now. Most of you who follow us on our social feeds know we started today with an Easter Message. For those that don't we posted a wind map dated for April 5th showing an area of Low pressure developing coming out of the GOMEX and out towards the Bahamas. Often times with developing areas of Low Pressure they can resemble a heart as the winds begin to spin inwards.
Here's the message that accompinied the image above. Take note of the outside chance for Possible Major Swell Event. The forecast is just outside of 10 days for that so lots of time to watch. Don't shoot the messenger if it doesnt happen but it looks as if these events are spaced out about 30 Days. As round dates we've had one around Feb 7th Around March 14th and then now back to April 7th so Cross U Finga.
The GFS over the last several days has been hinting at this Low developing. Todays afternoon run has trended towards a possible Tropical/Sub Tropical System developing. And it's just not the GFS anymore. The highly famed EURO which only runs out 10 days in it's run is now on board with the GFS as it's 10 days is now in the forecast time frame. Here's the 12Z Run of the EURO at +240 (April 6th) with weak Low Pressure developing North of PR and DR.
Heres the 12Z of the GFS for +252. Thats 12 hours later than the EURO above showing a full fledged bird. The 00Z EURO will be telling. NOW KEEP IN MIND this is a LONG WAYS OUT and although it's not important as to what one individual model run shows what is important is what they suggest.
But wait there's more. It just not an area of Low pressure developing. It's the whole pattern. Like we said in the Easter Message above thats just the heart. Lets look at the whole body as it appears that a long swell duration event could unfold. Gunna start you off on Tuesday. The Yellow and Oranges in the image below High Pressure and Purple and Blue Low Pressure. So what you see over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in this image for Tuesday is currently whats moving NE over the Central U.S and coming out of the GOMEX towards the OBX. This is not a swell producer for the U.S. but could send a small bump towards the Islands. It's after this storm moves up into the NATLC near the Tip of Greenland is when the door should open up as a Blocking High (Yellow and Orange over Central U.S.) moves out into the East Atlantic Thursday and Friday and remain nearly stationary. This is going to keep that small Easterly Trade Wind Swell going with a Southerly Suckup before the next frontal passage Friday or Saturday. Fun Surf Alert conditions for SE facing beaches through the Mid-Atlantic will be possible once the winds switch offshore.
Gunna switch you to winds and Friday so the color code is different then the pressure image above. The storm that was over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland now on the Eastside of Greenland. Strong Southerly Suckup leaving Florida aimed up through Nova Scotia and High Pressure in the North Central Atlantic shifting to the East. Looks like winds go offshore for everyone on the U.S. East Coast by Saturday knocking the swell back down before what looks to be the main event.
This next image is for Sunday showing area of Low Pressure post front developing in the Western Gomex. So in essence
We are inside of 7 days before the forecast starts to possibly verify. If we see the Low in the Western GOMEX in the next sets of back to back runs we will move inside of 5 days were confidence will begin to increase.
Monday Low moves to North Central GOMEX.
And then moving across North Florida on Tuesday out into the Atlantic East of Central Florida North of the Bahamas.
There really is no sense in taking it any further than this at the moment. The Image above is 9 days and from here the models move it out a tad further East. For now stay tuned for the updates. Follow us on our Social Feeds for the Real-Time updates. If you don't use a social media platform keep an eye on the website for a fresh update over the next couple of days. Trying to get the word out that the website is operational again. Please share our post. Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta