Here’s the latest update on the POSSIBLE Major Swell Event we have been advertising for over a week now on our social feeds. Latest guidance out of NOAA’S OPC showing developing Hurricane Force Low off the MID-Atlantic next 48-72 hours.
Latest NOAA Swell forecast showing 12-13 second NE Swell periods developing. Seas increasing 30-35 feet.There will be surf just not for everybody. It looks like NE Florida up through South Facing Beaches of the OBX will get skunked on this one at the moment. Still holding out hope for NE Florida but won’t know for sure until we actually see where this sets up. East Florida will get swell from this system but local wind conditions may be unfavorable for your location. Will go into a Buoy Watch and will provide Buoy updates here on the site starting probably late on Friday so stay tuned for our analysis.
PR and the Islands will also get swell. There’s a possibility of going into a rather LARGE Swell event for the Islands as a Secondary Low along with building High Pressure East of Florida develops on Monday creating an additional NNE Surge of winds at the same time as swell arrival coming from the Hurricane Force Low now forecast. Image is for Monday showing resurgence of NNE wind flow, backside of Bermuda aimed at the Islands. Keep in mind their will be 12-13 second plus groundswell underneath this.
This is the 00Z EURO for Saturday. The afternoon run is being populated as we post. Will be out in a couple of hours. There is still some uncertainty on exact track of this system. As mentioned in our post a track further to the East and lower in latitude could make a world of a difference on how much swell is generated.
We are approaching 30 Days since the last Major Swell Event around February 7th. This is a flashback to February 7th and the Hurricane Force Low that developed. The entry point into the Atlantic plays a large part on swell generation with these systems. Looking at the one from February 7th you can see it moved off the SE Coast. Last week when models began hinting at this they started off showing a similar scenario hence the call for POSSIBLE Major Swell Event.
Here is the current IR 12:00 EST showing the energy dropping out of the Pacific NW into the Central U.S. dropping into the SE. Still an outside shot of entry South of the OBX but not likely.
This is the latest NOAA Wind Wave at plus 96hrs. They have not updated this image since yesterday. Image in meters. 10 meters equates to seas building excess 30 feet in NE Swell. Winds 40-50Kts with gust to Hurricane Force. (This is not a Hurricane)
Thats it for now. Stay tuned for the next update.