Here’s the latest update on the POSSIBLE Major Swell Event we have been detailing on our social media feeds. Recent model trends now showing the area of Low Pressure moving into the Atlantic a tad more North and now more of a Westerly track than previous forecast. Previous model runs had the Low entering the Atlantic just South of the OBX into the Carolina Waters then moving NE away from the Coast. Now it appears an entrance North of the OBX and a hook at a fairly fast forward speed towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. This is the GFS for Friday showing the entry point.
Zooming out into Saturday and Low Rapidly Intensifying into a storm. This will get swell going.
Its Sunday that becomes the problem. Notice how it’s tucked up under Newfoundland. The majority of NE winds will be over land. Can’t create swell that way so there looks to be only a 24 hour period of swell generating NE Winds. Now with that said any adjustments to the South and East in track or slower forward speed could make a world of a difference in how much swell is generated.
This is the latest NOAA OPC Swell Map showing some 12-13 second NE Groundswell developing. NE Florida looks like it will get bypassed because of the more Northerly Entrance of the Low into the Atlantic and shadowing of the OBX So for Florida looks like a decent swell window for Central into SOFLO and through the Islands out towards PR. All though the distance away from the swell source for PR reinforcing NE winds look to develop South of Bermuda aimed at the Islands that could aid swell with additional heights coming for your foecast.
The one positive at the moment is latest NOAA OPC wind wave forecast shows seas increasing to excess 30. Image in meters showing 10 meters ( 32.8 Feet ) in developing NE Swell.
Again keep in mind what we said up thread. Adjustment in track just by a few hundred miles to the South and East could mean the world of difference to how much swell actually generated.
WEIGHT and SEA Stay tuned for the next update.