Stuck Like Chuck

Like the title says, that’s been the over all feeling for the last couple of days trying to figure out what’s next. We are just not seeing it at the moment. Models continue to differ on showing us anything to get the blood pumping, East Coast or West, and the over all visual continues to tease. Team Dabuh continues to hold out hope this morning for a GOMEX trip before the end of the tropical season. Hopefully it comes sooner than later like the beginning of next week. With that said here’s what it’s looking like.

TD 12 –E continues to fall apart over Mexico this morning. The forecast is for an area of low pressure to persist over and near the Yuke for the next 72 hours and possibly most of next week. Looking at the latest overnight model runs, it does not look like a swell producer for the GOMEX at the moment. In our experience over the years, models have a difficult time during the beginning and end of the tropical season in helping us determine what will or will not be a swell producer down wind. The time frame shortens up between runs of the models verses watching in real time as systems try and spin up. Even though something may not form, at times the gradient can tighten and become a swell producer.

The general flow is from the WSW turning NE over Florida. The trough of low pressure remains draped over the GOMEX this morning with High pressure sitting off the Louisiana Coast.


Zoom out a bit and we see an upper level low spinning South of Eastern Cuba and D.R. and a cluster of storms East of the Bahamas moving off to the NNE.


Here’s a shot of the water vapor for the region and a link to the loop to see it in motion. 

As you can see TD-12 E has brought a fair amount of moisture into the YUKE  and this is likely to persist all next week as low pressure gets hung up in the region.


High pressure is forecast to move in over the SE Coastal region early next week behind the cold front passing this weekend and this may provide a small bump for NE Florida next week. Here’s what the GFS currently looks like on Monday. NE to E winds with possibly a decent Easterly fetch setting up over the Atlantic with Low pressure trying to get into the Bay of C. It was looking like Nor’ Easter round III a few days ago.


So right now the forecast just doesn’t do anything to get us excited. Hang in there with us because this could change at a moments notice sometime around this weekend.

Stay Tuned !!!!!!!