Update Thursday Evening: Models have backed off the NE big blow mentioned below. We will not be posting any updates over the next several days. Hope to have a new forecast up by Sunday. The rest of the post in re to the Gulf Low this weekend is still on.
What’s up everybody. Models are coming into a little better agreement in the overnight hours showing a GOMEX Low developing going into this weekend. There is a bit of uncertainty at the moment but based on all the data reviewed, a major swell event for both the GOMEX and East Coast is about to unfold starting this weekend with Red Flags and seas building into Double D status (over 10’). First, lets discuss what’s happening on the backside of Bermuda. We have been monitoring an area of low pressure that is forecast to send a LPG Swell ( long period ground ) into much of the East Coast starting possibly late on Wednesday into Thursday with left over’s on Friday. Question is size and winds. We are monitoring the Paul West Bermuda Buoy for the first signs of the swell. As of report time, it looks like the shift in winds on this buoy are now taking place with NW winds 15-20 kts but no sign of swell yet. Highest seas are near 22 feet located near the center of this system as of report time. This looks like it has maxed out now so it’s wait and see from here on out.
Here’s a recent Water Vape Image depicting the low.
The latest TAFB forecast showing 13 plus seconds moving in on Thursday. Winds on Thursday look to be light out of the South for much of the East Coast of Florida. Could be a fun wave depending on how much swell size is generated. Friday winds begin to increase out of the South at 15-20kts for much of the East Coast and will crank late into the weekend.
So as far as the swell coming, at the moment looking like waist high, possibly plus for most East Coast locations. Lets shift gears and get to da meat. Starting you off with the GFS for Saturday. We see an area of low pressure moving East over Louisiana.
On Sunday it bombifies
Moving over NE Florida on Monday
And gone on Tuesday with High pressure building in behind. Strong Northerly surge will build seas 8-10 feet quickly Central Florida North. NE winds 20-25 kts plus
Switching gears back over to the GOMEX. Image below is for Sunday. Max seas at 14 feet with a strong SW/NW wind flow setting up West Florida with finally some big surf. Pan Handle has another bump coming for the weekend after scoring several days of rideable surf above waist high.
Zooming out and looking at Monday Sea heights still holding Double D status over in the GOMEX and Double D status on the East Side with Central Florida bumping to 10 feet plus.
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