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Looks Can Be Deceiving

Low finally reveals itself just off the Tip of the Yucatan

UPDATED : 10:30 AM -10/17/2011

 

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 After watching 95L and the Jags fall apart yesterday afternoon, t’s hard to get excited this morning. As they say, looks can be deceiving. And that’s what it looks like this morning, deceiving.

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Looking at the image above, like yesterday, your probably going wow. That  looks impressive !!!!!

And it does. The low associated with that blob of convection is now over water just off the tip of the Yucatan.

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The forecast is for it to drift a bit more to the NW and then it’s off to the races as the cold front comes in to sweep it to the Northeast. Heavy rains can be expected from Central Florida North over the next 24-36 hours with the possibility of wind gust to 40-50 miles an hour. Secure your trash cans and your lawn furniture. Looking at the images from a surfers perspective it’s easy to get excited but winds have not increased and remain near 35 miles an hour mainly to the NE of the low.

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Gradient will tighten a bit over the Middle Gulf today bumping highest seas in a small area up to 10-14 feet. Buoy station 42056 is reporting South winds at 15-20 kts since about midnight last night so hopefully this will assist the surf pushing in to the Pan Handle. It looks like a couple of days of ride-able surf in the waist to chest range for the Pan Handle with hopefully some clean lines Tuesday afternonn as NW winds are forecast to kick in at around 15-20 kts. Winds pick up NW 20-25 kts Tuesday night so it doesn’t look to last long if there’s anything left Wednesday morning.

East Coast like we discussed yesterday if the Southerly wind direction coming up can stay a bit more to the East for a longer period tomorrow could be a fun mini wave around waist high,possibly plus Wednesday morning.

Long Range The wind rotates back to NE around Friday. Starts of at 10-15 and will build through the weekend bumping the surf back up in the waist to chest range. Next week looking at the models it’s looking like a NE component for much of the week. Wind speeds around 15-20 kts so ride able East Coast surf once again for an extended period but you’ll need to put on your rubber. Water temps look to drop into low to mid 70’s.

Looking deep into the crystal ball. Next round of large surf, Nor’easter conditions setting up around Halloween. Here’s the latest run of the GFS for the weekend beginning October 28th. Obviously this far out doesn’t hold much water but the models have been hinting at another big blow coming for the last week. It keeps getting bumped ahead a few days.

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Stay tuned for the next update.

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About Justin Forrest

Justin is a graphic and web designer based in Neptune Beach, FL. When he's not surfing he's either hanging out with his fiance Jessie, or looking for tailing Redfish in the intracoastal waterways.

One Response to "Looks Can Be Deceiving"

  • Jim
    October 17, 2011 - 11:52 am

    Thanks!  We had a good shot last Halloween – hopefully we get another!

  • prejudicate