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It Has Begun

Today’s report brought to you by Campbell’s Soup. All the ingredients for the Primordial Soup are now in the kettle. All the brouhaha over this significant coastal event the last several days looks to be coming together quite nicely this morning.

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First Update At Bottom of the Thread

As you lean over the kettle to get that first look of what’s in store, we give you the song of the day for your listening pleasure.

I see a bad moon arising.
I see there’s trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin’.
I see bad times today.

Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.

As the song says, looks like we’re in for nasty weather. Recent satellite imagery shows heavy rains beginning to train into the coastal regions.

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As we look further South the Tropical Forecast Branch is now calling for an area of low pressure to develop in the Bahamas’ in the vicinity of Elbow Key in about 72 hours.

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As you can see convection is building in this region, specifically over the Florida Keys. This is one area will we be monitoring a little closer once the visible sat images become more available.

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In the overnight model runs not much change. The Navy NOGAPS is now on board with the GFS. The CMC has relatively the same set up as it showed yesterday. The day they pretty much agree on is Wednesday. The three move an area of low pressure over NE Florida.

GFS:2011-10-07_074010

CMC:2011-10-07_074108

NOGAPS:2011-10-07_074243

In addition, the Tropical Forecast Branch is also calling for Gale Force Winds to develop in about 72 hours well East of the Central Florida coast line with seas building as high as 18 feet.

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Check the comment section for additional info and check back later for the next update as we monitor this event as it continues to unfold.

 

UPDATE 9:22 a.m.

The words being used over the last several days has been lots of uncertainty in the forecast. Now that the sun is up and we get a better look, the GOMEX has now caught our eye. For all of the loop watchers here’s the first area to keep an eye on. Although winds shear is high at this time we are seeing some rotation over the GOMEX.

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Here’s a more broader view

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We may see something try and develop off the SW Florida Coastline. Here’s a loop to keep an eye on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Stay Tuned

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About Justin Forrest

Justin is a graphic and web designer based in Neptune Beach, FL. When he's not surfing he's either hanging out with his fiance Jessie, or looking for tailing Redfish in the intracoastal waterways.

2 Responses to "It Has Begun"

  • Dabuh
    October 7, 2011 - 8:52 am

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
    508 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

    …WET AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY…

    .SHORT TERM…TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

    LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EVENT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE POUNDING SURF/HIGH
    RISK OF RIP CURRENTS…BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
    AROUND HIGH TIDE CYCLES. IN ADDITION…SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT
    5 DAYS. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE LATEST
    FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS ON THIS EVOLVING EVENT. ADDITIONAL
    INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE…INCLUDING
    A WEB BRIEFING AND GRAPHICAST. available here

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBriefing/Northeaster_Web_Briefing_100618_24h/index.htm

    .LONG TERM…TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

    THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO DIFFICULTIES SURROUNDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST
    COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS TO KEEP THE FORECAST
    UNCHANGED UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THUS THE GOING
    FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

  • Dabuh
    October 7, 2011 - 9:07 am

    AMZ080-071530-
     SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
     530 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011
     
     GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON N OF
     27N W OF 75W
     

     TODAY
     N OF 26N W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO
     9 FT. ELSEWHERE NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT…EXCEPT S OF 24N E OF
     70W SE TO S 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT…EXCEPT S OF 24N E OF 70W
     3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 26N…MORE NUMEROUS
     W OF 74W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
     26N W OF 76W.

     TONIGHT AND SAT
     N OF 24N NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
     KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SAT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT…
     EXCEPT W OF BAHAMAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 24N NE TO WINDS 20 KT. SEAS
     5 TO 8 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS W OF 72W.

     SAT NIGHT AND SUN
     N OF 28N W OF 75W E WINDS INCREASING TO 30
     TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N NE TO
     E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT…EXCEPT W OF BAHAMAS 3 TO
     5 FT. S OF 24N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT…
     EXCEPT W OF BAHAMAS 3 TO 5 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
     TSTMS W OF 72W.

     MON
     N OF 29N W OF 77W NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 40 KT…DIMINISHING
     TO E TO SE 20 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT…THEN
     SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 13 FT LATE. HIGHEST SEAS ALONG AND JUST N OF
     30N EARLY. ELSEWHERE N OF 27N E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7
     TO 11 FT. FROM 23N TO 27N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9
     FT…EXCEPT W OF BAHAMAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. S OF 23N SE WINDS 10
     TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT SE SWELL…EXCEPT W OF BAHAMAS 2 TO 3
     FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 72W.

     TUE
     N OF 28N W OF 68W SE TO S WINDS 20 KT AND GUSTY. SEAS 6
     TO 8 FT. FROM 24N TO 28N E OF BAHAMAS SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
     SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 28N E TO SE WINDS 10
     KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
     

  • prejudicate