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Fortune Teller, Rina ? and Nor’ Easter Round III

Morning everyone, Today’s song of the day brought to you by Dustin Roberts.

Xavier Rudd’s Fortune Teller

Well I see, that this is my window ……Your questions, questions, with every move I make. So much time…. is made up with answers, To why my feet will, always hold their ground. Need to be the one, Redefine yourself, See it in your mind, This is all a game, Do it all again, Redefine yourself, See it in your mind, This is all a game……. This is my fortune……..This is my fortune…… Well I see, the sun in my window Ahh your questions, questions,Sometimes remain. Need to be the one, Redefine yourself, See it in your mind, This is all a game, Do it all again, Redefine yourself, See it in your mind, This is all a game……. cause this is my fortune……..This is my fortune……  

Gulf Forecast on top, East Coast bottom of the post.

The broad area of low pressure located near and over the YUKE has now been designated 95L Investigate. 95L has become better organized in the overnight hours and winds are approaching tropical storm strength. Winds on Buoy 42056 located in the YUKE Basin have shifted in the overnight hours from ESE yesterday, to SSE this morning at around 20-25 kts. A positive sign for the Pan Handle this morning. As you can see convection is very concentrated this morning verses yesterday. Click back over to yesterdays post to see the difference between convection and the difference between yesterdays GFS 00 ZULU run vs todays GFS 00 ZULU run near the bottom of today’s post.

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UPDATE 10:00 A.M.

South Florida Water Management has updated their forecast track page and it’s a complete reverse of earlier today. We will continue to monitor the GOMEX and will update with any new info as it becomes available.

NEW ********* 2011-10-23_094758 

OLD ********2011-10-16_064325

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We’ve had at least a 12 hour duration on 42056 of ESE, SSE, 20 kt plus winds with higher gust. With the winds switching S-SE this will help push swell up into the Middle Gulf today.

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95L looks fairly impressive this morning as wind shear has relaxed near the area of low pressure but remains high over much of the GOMEX.

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Again you can see it’s a big ball of convection this morning and although the low is over land it continues to build.

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Looking at the models and again click back over to yesterdays post to see the 24 hour difference in back to back runs. Tuesday we now see part of 95L break off as a surface low and move into the Central and Eastern GOMEX.

Tuesam

Here’s the change. As the day progresses the GFS now organizes the surface low a bit verses yesterday’s run and places it a bit further West. The front comes into the picture over Texas.

Tuespm

In the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday the front comes sweeping through drawing the surface low over P.C. and off to the Northeast. Surf looks to be small if not blown flat by Wednesday morning for much of the Pan Handle. If there is anything left it won’t be there for long and it looks like beaches West of P.C. will be in a better position to pick up a bit more size. Time will tell.

For East Coast, as we pointed out in yesterday’s post, could be a fun wave Wednesday Morning. This is highly dependant on the Southerly wind component associated with the frontal passage and the timing of said front. Southerly winds could approach Gale force and with a quick wind shift to West, could be. Like our brothers to the West it won’t be there long either.

Wedam

As the front passes Thursday into Friday no need to tell you with a stiff NNW wind the Pan Handle goes back to small for all but here’s where the East Coast gets a turn as winds shift back NE in the overnight hours leading into Saturday. This is good news for Sunday’s ESA contest as surf will build all day Saturday.

Pan Handle, Please note that part of 95L still remains near the YUKE. Could go through this all again in the long term, hint, hint, but Mo Bettah. Cross you finga. :)

Sat

There’s still some iffines after Saturday but it’s leaning more and more towards Nor’easter Round III coming up but not as long of a duration as II. Need a fast moving front to come sweeping through for a quick clean up if it happens.

 

Stay Tuned !!!!!!!!

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About Justin Forrest

Justin is a graphic and web designer based in Neptune Beach, FL. When he's not surfing he's either hanging out with his fiance Jessie, or looking for tailing Redfish in the intracoastal waterways.