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Another Major Swell Event Setting Up

Morning everyone, Looks like the Atlantic could be setting up the East Coast for the largest swell event of the year. Flashes of Classic Reef Road are coming into mind for next week but first we need to look at what’s happening with RINA and what was 97L INVEST.

Here’s the OFFICIAL Forecast track for RINA as of 4 a.m. CDT. Throw it out the window. It’s not where she officially goes but what she does for the surfing community. Unfortunately for the Gulf Coasters not much. As advertised from a few days ago longboard/SUP at best. As of report time East Gulf Bouy 42003 showing swell has dropped to 1 foot from a peak of two foot last night. Northerly winds are on their way and are currently located near Louisiana at about 20-25 knots. Get what you can and sorry it didn’t work out.


Looking at the latest rainbow infrared we can see that SW wind shear is blowing the tops off the convection towards Florida. This is the same basic setup we saw with 95L last week. South Florida keep that in mind. For those of you who didn’t see Surfline’s The No-Name Storm story, check it out here   H/T Jamie Borders Fluidgroove.net


As this happens models are showing a series of low pressure moving along the front pushing through this weekend. Here’s the latest GFS for Saturday into Sunday showing low pressure moving across Southern Florida. Check out the Low moving over the OBX. In addition check out the Central Atlantic. NHC currently showing 10% chance of development. More on that, bottom of the post.


On Sunday the low currently over the OBX gives the NE it’s first Winter Storm. Most models are in good agreement on a Classic track from Hatteras off to the NE and this low forecast to crank out hurricane force winds and dump snow. The NAM model is the outlier showing a track a bit more to the East over the Atlantic.


Lets skip to Tuesday. Take notice of the low pressure off Central Florida. This part of the forecast becomes a bit iffiy but South Florida setting up for a repeat performance just like the Surfline story above.


Looking at the GFS late on Tuesday the gradient really tightens up. Ocean Prediction Center showing a developing Gale during this time frame East of North Florida. Isobars stretch all the way into South Florida with several pockets of low pressure offshore.


Here is the GFS we showed you in the RINA Cat 2 post a few days ago. You can see the GFS has been relatively consistent in their runs in re to low pressure off the Florida Coast. Initial run time on the image below dated 10-25-2011, 3 days ago.


Now jump to Thursday. Look what happens. The winds die out and look to go offshore in advance of the next front. Alot can happen between now and then so keep that in mind. This is way way outside of 72 hours so not alot of confidence yet, but it’s building with each model update. The kicker will be if the system currently in the Central Atlantic can develop. This will add swell on top of swell. WOOO HOOO


Alright here’s your visuals. General flow out of the SSW off to the NE ahead of the front. Front now located from NE Mexico, off the Texas Coast, up through Louisiana.


And here’s the new system in the Central Atlantic we will be tracking next several days.


Wish I could give you more at this time. Check back for the next update. Looks like the East Coast is getting ready to rock once again with Central to South Florida getting da goods.

P.S. how bout some props in da comment section. It’s been a little over a month since we started this site. Tell us what you think so far. If you think we suck, tell us we suck. Good and bad comments welcome.



About Justin Forrest

Justin is a graphic and web designer based in Neptune Beach, FL. When he's not surfing he's either hanging out with his fiance Jessie, or looking for tailing Redfish in the intracoastal waterways.

2 Responses to "Another Major Swell Event Setting Up"

  • Mike Steiner
    October 28, 2011 - 2:35 pm

    There is nothing about your site or forecast that sucks! You help make my surf trips a whole lot less stressful because 9 times ot of 10 you get it right. This is especially important because I am in Tallahassee Fl and have to drive 2 to 2 1/2 hours to catch the gulf or the Atlantic. There is nothing worse than making that drive for nothing. The good news is, I can access both of them fairly easy. Keep up the good work! – MS

    • Da Buh
      October 29, 2011 - 10:45 am

      Thanks Mike I think I met you at the poles one day. Preesh the comp.