UPDATE AUGUST 31st 2017
Although some things have change up a bit since the last update below RE IRMA off the OBX. The post below 3 days ago is still relevant due to current swell passing the Buoys.
We now have IRMA coming out of the East Atlantic with Possible JOSE coming to the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Latest Video Update.
Wanted to take a moment for PRAYERS to the people of Texas. Harvey continues to spin and is forecast to partially move back over the NW Gulf. Check our Social Feeds for updates, on what that could possibly mean for West Florida and Pan Handle Surfers. We are no longer covering the weather impacts of Harvey. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for more info on this system.
Here are the changes since our last update and video forecast posted 6 Days ago Latest on HARVEY 92L INVEST Possible IRMA Major Swell Event ? The POSSIBLE Major Swell Event continues coming from what was 92L, which is now Potential Tropical Cyclone TD#10. National Hurricane Center now at 90% Chance of Development next 5 Days.
If you been following along, we mentioned in our updates that this one was a complicated one. The image below is the 00Z EURO from August 22nd valid for Thursday August 31st and was used in our updates when we first started picking up on the idea of a POSSIBLE Major Swell Event coming.
Harvey to the left, OBX Low (92L), NATLC Storm SE of NF, and AFRIKAN Wave into a Tropical Cyclone coming off Afrika.
There is uncertainty in the exact track of PTC TD#10, POSSIBLE IRMA or NO NAME STORM. National Weather Service Boston put out a Worse Case, Best Case scenario this morning. This is also is a Worse Case, Best Case scenario for Florida Surfers.
The system needs to get away from the coast in order for more Northerly fetch to be created. In the Worst Case scenario above the Outer Banks Shadow will block swell into Florida at least in size not period opening up a bit for SOFLO (Small Bump ATM)
Here is the very latest NOAA 96HR Swell Forecast. Go back to the EURO model above to see the difference since our last update on where the storms where to set up.
Plenty of Punch. Latest NOAA Wind Wave Forecast next 96 showing seas increasing to excess 30′ image is in Meters. This would qualify for DaBuh.com Major Swell Event Status for seas in excess of 25′. There are some negatives with Swell production however.
Latest Surface Forecast showing Hurricane Force Low developing AND OR Possible Tropical/Sub Tropical Storm IRMA. It remains possible that this system does not acquire a name.
There is also some uncertainty on the exact timing on when the system decides to make its move off towards the OBX. This image around 9AM EST with the system located near or just offshore the Florida Georgia Border.
Latest out of the National Hurricane Center effective 8AM. Stay Tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time updates Buoy Watch now in effect. What Sucks is East Hatteras Buoy has once again gone a drift. This would have been a key indicator buoy for this system.
Here comes the Real Deal 93L INVEST National Hurricane Center Now at 70% Chance of development.
Last Nights run of the EURO Day 10 Setting Up for A CLASSIC Hurricane Swell Up Coming Forecast Period. Light winds along the Eastern Seaboard Long Period Ground Swell
Heres this mornings look. System is just South of the Cape Verdes.
And a Look at the Big Picture. You don’t need to be a Rocket Scientist to see how 93L comes together.
The next question is where does it go from North of PR and there is some uncertainty there as well. Here are the typical tracks for September. Out to Sea (Most likely in Orange) with system originating in this type of pattern.
We will add a forecast video update to this post shortly so stay tuned in for that. If you get skunked don’t shoot the messenger. If it aint breaking at your house it doesn’t mean its not going off at someone else.
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Stay Tuned for the Forecast Video Update. Will Post it at the top of this post later today. (Hopefully)