For those who have been following our forecast, RE “August known as the “Bunny Month” we are off to a fast start. Although Tropical Storm EMILY formed at the end of July, in the first 4 days of August, we’ve had a Tropical Cyclone and now two INVEST 90 and 99L. A good forecaster always goes back to see what he or she said to determine forecast verification. 5 days ago we put this out on our social feeds. As the season progresses towards the peak of season (Now approaching the 30 day mark) we want to make you aware if you are not already, that Twitter is where we always post 1st. Then that gets shared to our other feeds Facebook and Instagram but not always. If you are searching for Real-Time Updates and dont follow us on Twitter, you may want to consider creating a Twitter Account going into peak of season. You can always delete the app if you don’t like it. If we are your only follow, its like having your own DaBuh App. During heightened activity you can turn on notifications for every post or just refresh the feed. Also keep in mind if there is a period of non post we are probably in the water conducting in the field forecast verification 🙂
When viewing satellite imagery on this website or in our social feeds, Rule of Thumb- ALWAYS verify date and time stamp. I have seen people look at an image, get excited, only to find out the image is 5 days old such as the image below. If no time stamp exist in the image look to see when the post originated.
I can almost promise you nobody else was talking about the possibility of two named systems 5 days ago. Latest out of the National Hurricane Center showing 90L INVEST North Coast South Amerika and 99L INVEST South of the Cape Verde Islands. 90L now at 50% chance of development next 5 Days 99L at 80.
When you hear the word “Model” it is always 1 run. Models update 10 times a day with every run different from the previous. Currently the EURO and the GFS are Split. EURO has backed off on 99L but develops 90L going into the Bay of Campeche keeping 99L small and weak. GFS is the exact opposite showing a Hurricane coming over the top of PR with 99L INVEST and weak on 90. Heres the latest on model tracks for 99L.
In case you missed this post. Right now there are no threats to the U.S. Eastcoast with lots of time to watch. We will be adding a forecast video update to this post later today so stay tuned in for that. Looking at the image above you can see some potential for a threat but likely scenario at the moment looks to be Out to Sea (OTS) for 99 or dying in the Eastern Caribbean.
Surfers Possible Surf Alert coming up. I dropped this on the social feeds yesterday has not been said in a long time. Dont Hex it. Possible DaBuh.com Major Swell Event coming. Major Swell Event by Atlantic Standards are defined by a storm system producing long period swell 14 plus seconds with seas in excess of 25 feet. GOMEX Surfers still looking into your scenario with 90L INVEST.
Latest NOAA OPC 24hr Swell Forecast showing NE Swell from Large Scale GALE a few Days ago up in the North Atlantic. This is an Early Winter Swell Season sign. Had it been winter GALE would have likely been a Hurricane Force Low. For those who follow swell forecast same effect smaller scale.
Latest 96hr Swell Forecast and heres where things get interesting. The area SE of the Cape with arrows pointing in all directions is swell energy from EMILY, and the Secondary Low that had a 10% Chance, that moved up out of the GOMEX yesterday behind EMILY. If you look to the right of that you see more Easterly Swell developing with Southern Hemi Energy coming up behind what is 99L INVEST with periods spreading out into the 13-14 second range. Easterly swell periods South of the Cape down into Florida.
This is the EURO for next Wednesday NO Major Swell Event. Franklin in the BOC 99L INVEST East of the Islands no development.
This is the GFS for next Wednesday with a Major Swell Event. So lots of uncertainty at the moment especially considering this is just inside of 7 days so anything past 7 days is suspect.
Heres what 90L INVEST looks like in the satellite imagery this morning. Rule of Thumb-Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts or Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop. Wheres the Tail ? Bay of Campeche.
What does the EURO show ? Image is for next Thursday Day 8. Based on the pattern above the chances are increasing that a Tropical Cyclone will verify. For those who follow our forecast this is the Round the Corner Pattern we were detailing back in June we we had the first seasonal storms. That is, Area of Spin off Costa Rica Rounding the corner of Honduras into the Gulf of Honduras. Two typical tracks from there. Across the YUKE into the Bay of C (Western GOMEX) or up the YUKE Channel. This one looks to be headed into Mexico or Southern Texas.
Taking a look at the bigger picture. We need 90L INVEST to clear the East Caribbean to see what 99L may do. I also like this pattern for the 1st Possible Hurricane of the 2017 Season however there are some environmental challenges ahead.
Thats it for now. Stay tuned for the forecast video update later today. Will post it here bottom of this post. Will leave you with this post from July 26th, 10 days ago. +240= 24HRS x 10 Days.
Active Phase has begun.