VIDEO UPDATE ADDED 4PM EST TUESDAY APRIL 11th
Here comes Easter Swell 2017 and another shot at PR and the Islands to what looks to be the last gasp of winter type swell before the shift back to Tropical Season. We are approaching the 50 Day mark until the Official June 1st start of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. If you factor in the trends over the last seven years dating back to 2010 we have seen early seasonal tropical development come in May or by the end of June. This year appears to be setting up for it as well. Here is a recap of the last 7 seasons on early seasonal development.
2010 kicked it off with a very rare June Hurricane, Hurricane AL-LEKS June 25th in the West Caribbean eventually reaching the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas.
2011 saw Tropical Storm AR-LEEN June 28th (1st name of 2017 season) down in the Bay of Campeche.
2012 with 2 named systems Tropical Storms AL-BAIR-TOE and BEHR-RIL. Both systems formed off the SE U.S. East Coast
2013 kicked off with Tropical Storm AN-DREE-UH June 5th coming off the tip of the Yucatan and moved in through NE Florida up the Eastern Seaboard followed by Tropical Storm BAIR-REE June 17th.
Skipping 14 into 2015 saw Tropical Storm AH-NA form North of the Bahamas East of the NE Florida coast on May 8th followed by BILL June 16th.
Finally 2016 with RARE January Hurricane AL-LEKS followed by BAH-NEE May 27th 2016 also forming in the vicinity of the Northern Bahamas East of the NE Florida Coast.
Fast forward to Real-Time. We are now entering the Real-Time phase of weak Low Pressure development North of Hispan next 48-72HRS. Weak Double Barrel Low forecast out near the AZORES will get some positive windswell directed at the U.S Coast.
Latest 72HR surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing weak Low Pressure and associated surface trough North of PR.
For those who recall our social feed post on the signs the Trinity coming heres the 06Z GFS for April 13th. At the Last Supper was Jesus and his 12 Disciples making 13. Confirmations come in 3’s.
In the name of the Father the Son and the Holy Spirit in Jesus name we pray. Seas increasing North of PR 10-12 feet in developing Easterly wind swell. Outside chance for GALE coming.This is the 06Z GFS for Easter Sunday April 16th. Remember rule of thumb. High Pressure stack East of OBX always leads to look out below. April 16th starts the 45 Day countdown to the official start of the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season and 30 Days for the Eastern Pacific start of May 15th.
997MB East of Bermuda. Those wanting to surf PR one last time before the shift to tropical season this looks to be it.
Long ways out at +288 (12 Days) return of deep tropical moisture.
Will add a forecast video update to this post shortly. Waiting on fresh set of models runs.