Active phase continues this side of the Northern Hemi. The Big Swell we hinted at in our video update 2 weeks ago looks to be setting up in the upcoming forecast as the Pacifics last winter type swell event of the season. Swell forecast continues to show the majority of the Pacific setting up in predominately WNW Swell starting off with the current GALE.
This JMA Image is from yesterday. Models continue to show a Large Scale Low developing with COR moving off Japan in the next 4-5 days and blowing up near the Aleutians.
EURO yesterday inside of 7 days. Sub 960MB LOW ? Image is for this coming Thursday. Keep in mind the GALE kicking it off to start this post began the WNW swell component, now this next Thursday. Thats 55KT + WNW winds aimed at Hawaii along with a concentrated NNE Fetch of winds to GALE Force from Low off the Washington Coast. More importantly you have an already established Westerly Swell component from Japan across the Pacific. Add the WSW flow of winds West of the California coast back towards Hawaii and this becomes alot of energy aimed at the Western U.S. Coastline. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer to this event.
Over in the Atlantic side. Well Stella didnt turn out to be Stell R for everyone but wow what a storm. The lesson learned as we also pointed out in our video update a few weeks ago is that “Some of the Biggest Snowstorms come in the month of March”. The reason for this is this time of year you get the draw coming up out of the Gulf of Mexico as moisture starts its return in the tropics.
Out with the old in with the new. Heres comes the next clipper in line. This is this mornings imagery taken around 200AM EST 3-17 Luck of the Irish. Area of low pressure moving to the Mid-Atlantic now forecast as storm to devlop next 96 hours or so.
Latest out of NOAA OPC swell forecast already showing the swell directional change.
Still some uncertainty on exact location and track of Low. Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Surface.
Florida Surfers unclear at the moment how much swell energy can get past the OBX. The positive is last couple runs NOAA has bumped to seas in excess 20 FEET in NNE swell and 15-18 FEET in NNW Swell East of the OBX a negative for FL Surfers. Dont shoot the messenger just pointing it out. Will go into a buoy likely Sunday so stay tuned for Real-Time updates on that. At the moment we just have positive swell production.
Because the winds become a wild card starting around Wednesday where it could get BEEFY with models bringing in an area of weak low pressure sliding through the OBX pinching the gradient in front of High Pressure moving into replace it. Look at Central Florida South. Offshore winds with NE winds on top of already generated NNE Swell aimed right at SOFLO, a positve.
Negative, High pressure settle in on Thursday turning winds onshore. Good news for PR and Islands as another Northerly Swell surge develops. Bad news is here comes mosquito season as a wet pattern looks to develop over the Eastern Caribbean as the seasons clock continues to tick towards tropical season.
Looking at the extended it looks like the next big event will be a moderate to strong Southerly Suck-Up. Image is the 00Z GFS for Day 9 (+216) Sunday March 26th.
Sticking the neck out just a little past 10 days obviously lots will change just pointing out active phase. Image is for March 28th setting up April Fools Day Swell 2017. As a reminder to our long time followers DaBuh.com does not participate in April Fools jokes when it comes to weather.
Stay tuned for the next update.