Possible Tropical Storm COLIN Across Central Florida


UPDATE FROM ORIGINAL BELOW

Here the latest update on POSSIBLE Tropical Storm COLIN coming up off the tip of the Yuke next few days. Latest 72 hour wind wave forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing seas increasing 10-13 Feet coming out of the YUKE Channel in Southerly flow. Possible Fun Surf Alert coming for select locations Florida Pan Handle Beaches as offshore winds forecast at some point. West Florida get ready for the blow and AT THE MOMENT 40-45Kt WSW winds prior to the system crossing the state backside NW Flow after. Will have more details later this afternoon will will update this post below as new info comes in. NOAA swell forecast only showing brief period 8-10 seconds showing over next 3-4 days with MAX Sea Heights at the moment, 12-15 feet next 96. We do not have an INVEST designation yet but that will likely to change today. Latest surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center with Low pressure lifting off the tip of the YUKE on Monday. Models move what could become COLIN off towards the NE once it gets going. 2016-06-03_060554
Will likely end up as a here today gone tomorrow storm. The two downward arrows represent days 5 and 6 going from Gulf to Atlantic in 24 and being absorbed into a larger system and becoming a distant memory.2016-06-03_060927
Check back for the update.

UPDATE 12 AM Saturday June 4th

We now have 93L INVEST NW Caribbean. National Hurricane Center currently at 70% Chance of development next 5 days. These type of Lows that lift off the YUKE like this can be very tricky with the interaction with land. Once the main cyclonic spin moves off the tip into open water in the Gulf is when this will have a chance to get going and in all likelihood become Tropical Storm COLIN crossing the Central Florida Coast. The Euro has been trending on a same entry point Tampa ? and now brings it out over NE Florida. The one bright spot in this big mess is models quickly move the system from West to ENE in a fast clip. What is not is the potential for copious amounts of rain for SW Florida. Weak Tropical systems can sometimes dump copious amounts of rain. This will only compound the over flow coming out of Lake Okeechobee and the pollution the corp is discharging.2016-06-03_231232
Latest 72 hour surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center. Look at the location of the Low in the map. Now go back and look at the imagery above. See it. But the INVEST has not made it out of the Gulf of Hondura yet. It’s still working it’s way up.2016-06-03_233919NOAA showing MAX Seas 12 Feet North of the YUKE Channel in Southerly Swell. Keep in mind however how we started. Wont be until the main cyclonic spin moves into the GULF. Could defy the models and intensify stronger than currently forecast.2016-06-03_234320This will set up Pan Handle beaches with what should be fun surf alert conditions along portions of Florida Pan Handle. Image is for Saturday with moderate moderate trade then lowering of pressure with increasing SE winds pushing water through the YUKE Channel.
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Image for Monday 30-35 KT winds off west Florida Coast Offshore Big Bend Seas likely excess 15 feet.2016-06-03_235845
Then offshore winds on Tuesday for the Pan Handle and SW onshore flow into SW Florida.2016-06-04_000606Will hold it here for a moment. Let the models cycle over night.
Check her again for more updates.

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